Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I emphasized the level of 1.3356 and planned to make entry decisions based on it. A decline and the formation of a false breakout around 1.3356 provided a buying opportunity for the pound, resulting in a rise of more than 40 pips. In the second half of the day, active selling at 1.3434 caused the pair to decline by another 30 pips.

To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Yesterday, the pound's upward trend continued immediately after news that U.S. job growth remained sluggish: according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls increased by only 64,000 in November, after a decrease of 105,000 in October. Unemployment also jumped to 4.6%. However, today the situation may change. In the first half of the day, consumer price index data from the UK, producer price index, and retail price index are expected. High figures may impact the Bank of England's plans regarding rate cuts, thereby strengthening demand for the British pound. In the event of a decline in the pair, I expect the first signs of buyers around the support level of 1.3384, formed from yesterday's results. Only the formation of a false breakout will create a good condition to open long positions, targeting further growth towards resistance at 1.3421. A breakthrough and an upward retest of this range will increase the chances of strengthening GBP/USD, leading to the stop-loss orders of sellers being taken out and providing a suitable entry point for long positions with a potential exit to 1.3452 – the monthly high. The farthest target will be the area of 1.3490, where I plan to take profit. If GBP/USD declines and there is a lack of buyer activity at 1.3384, pressure on the pair will significantly increase, leading to a move toward the next support at 1.3356. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be a suitable condition to open long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from the 1.3322 low, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30-35 pips.

To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Pound sellers have been quite active since the first minutes of the Asian session, which seems more like positioning ahead of the important meeting of the Bank of England. In the case of a rise in GBP/USD following the inflation data, bears need to act decisively near the nearest resistance at 1.3421. Only the formation of a false breakout there will prompt a sale of GBP/USD targeting a decline to the support at 1.3384. A breakthrough and upward retest of this range after weak data will deal a larger blow to buyer positions, triggering stop-loss orders and opening the path to 1.3356. The farthest target will be the area of 1.3322, where I will take profit. In the event of an upward move in GBP/USD and a lack of activity at 1.3421, buyers will resume developing a bullish trend, potentially leading to a jump toward 1.3452. I also intend to open short positions only on false breakouts there. In the absence of downward movement there, I plan to sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3490, but only in anticipation of a 30-35-pip intraday downward correction.

Recommended for Review:

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders data is not being published. As soon as the relevant report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest relevant data is from November 18.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), there was an increase in long positions and a decrease in shorts. Pressure on the dollar remains, especially after the Federal Reserve once again reduced interest rates. However, demand for the pound is not as strong as the Bank of England's policy may change in the near future, potentially lowering borrowing costs. The short-term future dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate will be determined by new fundamental data. The latest COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 766 to a total of 53,189, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 981 to a total of 132,446. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 282.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.

Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3384 will act as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands. Period – 20.
• Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.