22.04.202601:34:34UTC+00Australia Leading Index Remains Weak

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index edged down 0.1% month-on-month in March 2026, unchanged from February’s result. The six‑month annualised growth rate—which signals the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend over the next three to nine months—fell to –0.13% in March from 0.05% in February.

According to Westpac economist Matthew Hassan, higher interest rates and surging fuel costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East are beginning to weigh on growth momentum, though only moderately at this stage. The March reading already points to a period of below‑trend growth over the remainder of 2026. While the growth pulse is not especially weak, this is the first below‑trend result since August last year and, before that, since the prolonged period of softness during the 2022–2024 “cost‑of‑living” crisis.

Westpac expects the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate by a further 25 basis points in May, with additional increases likely in the following months.