Trade review and trading advice for the Japanese yen

The price test at 156.29 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the 155.80 level.

The yen significantly strengthened against the US dollar, driven by expectations of major changes in the geopolitical environment. Information reaching the broader public about the nearing agreement between the United States and Iran on a ceasefire triggered a decline in USD/JPY. A lower level of uncertainty typically increases demand for riskier assets, including currencies of open economies heavily dependent on external trade, such as Japan. A reduced likelihood of further escalation lowers hedging costs and, as a result, decreases the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar.

In the second half of the day, the key market driver will be the release of US ADP employment data. If the figures are strong and show significant job growth, this will support the US dollar and put renewed pressure on the yen. Conversely, weak data may raise concerns about an economic slowdown and keep USD/JPY in a bearish trend.

Particular attention should also be given to speeches by FOMC members Alberto Musalem and Austan D. Goolsbee. In an unstable economic environment, statements from Federal Reserve officials carry significant weight. Investors will closely analyze their comments for any hints about future policy actions—whether interest rates may be changed or other measures introduced to stabilize the situation. Any references to inflation, the labor market, or the broader economic outlook will be closely scrutinized.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 156.13 (green line on the chart) with a target of 156.53 (thick green line on the chart). Around 156.53, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point reversal. A rise in the pair is only possible if US data is strong.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 155.90, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward 156.13 and 156.53 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 155.90 (red line on the chart), which may lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 155.40, where I will exit shorts and immediately open buys in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point reversal. Selling pressure may return today if US data is weak.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 156.13 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 155.90 and 155.40 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – target price (Take Profit level), where profits may be taken as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – target price (Take Profit level), where profits may be taken as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important note

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing intraday strategy from the outset.