Trade Review and Trading Advice for the European Currency

The test of the 1.1631 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's further downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test, when the MACD indicator was in the oversold area, led to the implementation of Buy Scenario No. 2, which resulted in the pair rising by only 10 points.

Strong data showing a 0.7% increase in eurozone industrial production supported a modest strengthening of the euro, but that was all. Growth in industrial production is certainly a positive sign, indicating a potential recovery of the eurozone economy after a period of sluggishness. However, in exchange rate dynamics, a whole range of factors usually plays a role, and a single positive reading—even such a significant one—does not always automatically lead to currency appreciation.

During today's U.S. trading session, the publication of several important indicators is expected: the weekly report on initial jobless claims in the United States, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches by FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin.

The jobless claims report will provide an up-to-date picture of changes in the labor market, but it is unlikely to significantly support the dollar. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index serves as a leading indicator of industrial activity in the region. Readings above zero indicate expansion, while readings below zero point to contraction. However, this indicator is also unlikely to trigger strong market fluctuations. By contrast, the speeches by Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, will be closely analyzed for any signals regarding the future course of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Their comments on inflation, employment, and economic growth could significantly influence market expectations regarding future interest rates.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1640 level (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.1665 level. At 1.1665, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected after weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1627 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1640 and 1.1665 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1627 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1608 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of a hawkish stance from Fed officials.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1640 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1627 and 1.1608 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.