Friday's Trade Analysis:

1-Hour Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Friday, completely ignoring the macroeconomic background. On Friday, the most important reports on the state of the American economy were published in the US: the Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. These data have significant importance and influence on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, despite double the number of new jobs created in April, the market did not react to these reports. The American currency declined throughout the day. Thus, we remind novice traders of the most important points once again. In 90% of cases, the market ignores macroeconomics and fundamentals. Second, geopolitics has weakened its influence on the market, but individual events can provoke intraday movements. Third – the euro and the pound maintain upward trends in the long term, meaning that one should expect their strengthening rather than decline in 2026.

5-Minute Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one buy trading signal was generated on Friday. During the European trading session, the pair overcame the range of 1.3587-1.3598, but volatility throughout the day was again weak. Therefore, despite the one-sided movement throughout the day, profits from long positions amounted to only 20-25 pips.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair maintains an upward trend, but it has been trading with a sideways bias for almost a month. Without a serious escalation in the Middle East, the dollar cannot be expected to rise as it did in February-March. Individual events may still provoke their strengthening, but overall, the geopolitical factor has weakened its influence on the market. The British currency retains excellent upward prospects according to the trends on the daily and weekly timeframes.

On Monday, novice traders can open short positions with a target of 1.3456-1.3476 if the pair stabilizes below the 1.3587-1.3598 range. A stabilization price above the 1.3587-1.3598 range will allow opening long positions with a target of 1.3695. However, volatility may also be weak today.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be conducted at levels 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. Today, the events calendar in the UK is completely empty, and in the US, there will be a minor report on home sales. Thus, if not for geopolitics, there would be nothing for traders to react to today.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
6. After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What is on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.