Bonds, oil, and geopolitics weigh on markets

US exchanges finished the day lower: S&P 500 -0.67%, Nasdaq 100 -0.84%, Dow Jones +0.65%. Global markets marked a fourth consecutive day of declines — MSCI All Country World -0.2%, Asia roughly -1% on average. The main driver is the bond market: 30-year US Treasury yields climbed to 5.20% (the 2007 level), and the index of government bonds with maturities >10 years is down 4.6% year-to-date.

Brent is trading near $111/bbl. Escalation with Iran is keeping inflation expectations elevated, which is pressuring high-multiple growth stocks. This is a yield move driven by inflation insurance demand rather than by a strong economy. The political backdrop remains tense: G7 in Paris pledged to avoid excessive fiscal stimulus amid inflationary risks, NATO is discussing escorts for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed threats from US President Donald Trump to resume strikes on Iran add to uncertainty. Follow the link for more details.

Earnings not enough: S&P, small caps at risk

Equities can theoretically hold up in a stagflationary environment if corporate profits justify valuations — a view previously advanced by Yardeni Research. Spring gains, despite Middle East tensions, were supported by the earnings season and FOMO, but greed is slowly giving way to fear. Wells Fargo warns to be cautious in the "second half," citing inflationary pressures, financial strain, and the US midterm elections.

In comparable past episodes, the S&P 500 dropped by more than 10% in the second half of the year in 71% of cases (versus 44% in normal years). Bank of America flags a potential trigger for profit-taking: in their survey, portfolio overweighting of US equities rose from 13% in April to 50% now (last seen at that level in January 2022), while cash holdings fell to 3.9%. Rising fear is also visible in the S&P's three-day decline and in the rising cost of hedging. Follow the link for more details.

Dollar strengthens amid hawkish Fed tone and record yields

The US dollar index ends the week in a tight consolidation range around 99.25 after failing to hold above a six-week high near ~99.45. The greenback is testing the 99.30–99.35 area. The American currency is supported by hawkish Fed sentiment and rising yields, while tentative progress in US-Iran talks has temporarily reduced safe-haven demand.

The main driver is a repricing of monetary policy following an unexpected acceleration in inflation: CME FedWatch now prices in better than a 50% chance of an interest rate hike by December, and the FOMC minutes confirmed a move away from an easing bias. The bond market reinforces the dollar case — 10-year Treasuries >4.60%, 20-year >5.60%, 30-year >5.66% (multi-year highs last seen in 2007) — making dollar assets relatively more attractive to foreign investors. Follow the link for more details.