Trade Review and Advice on Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1817 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point for buying the euro. However, the pair failed to continue rising, resulting in a loss.

Despite positive economic data from Germany and France, the euro did not extend its gains. During the morning session, the euro showed only a slight increase against the U.S. dollar and other major currencies, while trading volumes remained moderate, indicating a wait-and-see approach among traders.

This is most likely due to the release of several important U.S. macroeconomic reports expected in the second half of the day. In particular, data on the Producer Price Index (PPI), which serves as an indicator of inflation at the production stage, will be published. In addition to the headline PPI, special attention will be paid to its "core" version, which excludes sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. If the data come in strong, pressure on the euro will quickly return, and the dollar will regain strength.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1811 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1835. At 1.1835, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A strong rise in the euro can be expected only after weak data.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1792 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1811 and 1.1835 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1792 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1776, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong data.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1811 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1792 and 1.1776 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.